U、 彭博经济模型:12个月内美国经济衰退百分之百确定 - U.S. recession 100% certain within 12 months: Bloomberg economic model

   2022-10-19 ecns0
核心提示:据《纽约邮报》援引彭博社周一发布的经济预测模型称,美国经济在未来12个月内陷入衰退几乎是必然的。华尔街最大银行的许多高管也持类似观点,表示他们正在为潜在的经济衰退做准备。彭博经济(Bloomberg Economics)的最新统计预测显示,未来12个月内出现衰退的可能性为100%,而Bloomb出现衰退的概率为65%
The U.S. economy falling into recession within the next 12 months is a virtual certainty, according to the New York Post, citing Bloomberg Economics forecast model released on Monday. Many top executives from Wall Street's biggest banks share similar views, saying they're preparing for a potential recession.Bloomberg Economics' latest statistical projections showed a 100 percent probability of a recession within the next 12 months, compared to a 65 percent likelihood of a recession in the Bloomberg model's most recent previous update.The forecast gave reasons for the recession including the U.S. economy contends with decades-high inflation, U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes, and mounting geopolitical tensions.Nearly all CEOs are readying for the U.S. economy to fall into a recession, according to FOX Business, citing a survey released on Oct 13 by The Conference Board.The survey found that 98 percent of CEOs indicated they were preparing for a U.S. recession over the next year or year and a half. That figure is five percent higher than in the third-quarter survey.About 81 percent of CEOs said economic conditions had gotten worse compared to six months ago, according to The Conference Board. Nearly three-quarters were pessimistic about their expectations for the coming six months, with 74 percent saying they thought conditions would get worse."We recognize the pressure points are building in several areas of the economy that could lead to stress in the future," said Andy Cecere, CEO of U.S. Bank, in an Associated Press report on Oct 14. Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf told investors on a conference call that the bank expects broader economic conditions to weaken.JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said to the Associated Press that there's a "very, very serious" mix of concerns could lead to a recession in the next six to nine months.There's an 80-percent chance of the U.S. falling into a recession — much higher than previously predicted, according to Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University. Hanke said that to CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Sept 23.Hanke was critical of the U.S. Federal Reserve's failure to manage inflation. "They have really been searching for inflation and the causes of inflation in all the wrong places. They're looking at everything under the sun, but the money supply," Hanke said.The U.S. economy falling into recession within the next 12 months is a virtual certainty, according to the New York Post, citing Bloomberg Economics forecast model released on Monday. Many top executives from Wall Street's biggest banks share similar views, saying they're preparing for a potential recession.Bloomberg Economics' latest statistical projections showed a 100 percent probability of a recession within the next 12 months, compared to a 65 percent likelihood of a recession in the Bloomberg model's most recent previous update.The forecast gave reasons for the recession including the U.S. economy contends with decades-high inflation, U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes, and mounting geopolitical tensions.Nearly all CEOs are readying for the U.S. economy to fall into a recession, according to FOX Business, citing a survey released on Oct 13 by The Conference Board.The survey found that 98 percent of CEOs indicated they were preparing for a U.S. recession over the next year or year and a half. That figure is five percent higher than in the third-quarter survey.About 81 percent of CEOs said economic conditions had gotten worse compared to six months ago, according to The Conference Board. Nearly three-quarters were pessimistic about their expectations for the coming six months, with 74 percent saying they thought conditions would get worse."We recognize the pressure points are building in several areas of the economy that could lead to stress in the future," said Andy Cecere, CEO of U.S. Bank, in an Associated Press report on Oct 14. Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf told investors on a conference call that the bank expects broader economic conditions to weaken.JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said to the Associated Press that there's a "very, very serious" mix of concerns could lead to a recession in the next six to nine months.There's an 80-percent chance of the U.S. falling into a recession — much higher than previously predicted, according to Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University. Hanke said that to CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Sept 23.Hanke was critical of the U.S. Federal Reserve's failure to manage inflation. "They have really been searching for inflation and the causes of inflation in all the wrong places. They're looking at everything under the sun, but the money supply," Hanke said.
 
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